I rischi per il Regno Unito di un no-deal sono
molti e coinvolgono una serie di aspetti economici profondi rispetto a
quelli dibattuti nella campagna referendaria.
La mia analisi su The
Economists' Voice.
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/ev.ahead-of-print/ev-2019-0025/ev-2019-0025.xml?format=INT
Abstract
The
aim of this paper is to analyze the potential consequences of Hard
Brexit for the economy of the United Kingdom. From the theoretical and
empirical literature, there are no reasons to expect good performances
in the medium long term for the British economy. The Hard Brexit
scenario will damage the UK perspectives of growth by increasing costs
of production, difficulties to export, a quantitative and qualitative
deterioration in labor force, the escape of financial operators and of
the legal offices of multinationals from the London square, the
isolation of UK in the international geopolitical context and riskiness
for the same integrity of United Kingdom. After the vote, we can observe
a resilience of the UK economy that could be determined by the
accumulation of stocks in anticipation of a traumatic exit, but also, to
an important depreciation of pound that is producing inflation and
losing value of real wages.
JEL Classification: E00;
E65;
E66;
F10;
F45
