The Risks of Hard Brexit for the United Kingdom

I rischi per il Regno Unito di un no-deal sono molti e coinvolgono una serie di aspetti economici profondi rispetto a quelli dibattuti nella campagna referendaria.
La mia analisi su The Economists' Voice.

https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/ev.ahead-of-print/ev-2019-0025/ev-2019-0025.xml?format=INT

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the potential consequences of Hard Brexit for the economy of the United Kingdom. From the theoretical and empirical literature, there are no reasons to expect good performances in the medium long term for the British economy. The Hard Brexit scenario will damage the UK perspectives of growth by increasing costs of production, difficulties to export, a quantitative and qualitative deterioration in labor force, the escape of financial operators and of the legal offices of multinationals from the London square, the isolation of UK in the international geopolitical context and riskiness for the same integrity of United Kingdom. After the vote, we can observe a resilience of the UK economy that could be determined by the accumulation of stocks in anticipation of a traumatic exit, but also, to an important depreciation of pound that is producing inflation and losing value of real wages.

Keywords: Brexit; economic policies; global economy; international finance; international trade

JEL Classification: E00; E65; E66; F10; F45